Meteorological Reports - CHAD

[Jonathan McCormack]

During the weeks leading up to this operation I will be forecasting the latest weather reports of the operation area.  Naturally, this far away from the operation, the reports can only represent educated guesses, but as the weeks pass by, I should be able to analyse the weather forecast with more accuracy.

Current forecast in the Chad during the time of the planned operation.

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There's a danger of promising a false dawn. However it looks like the 'Azores High' will have another attempt at heading over Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad.
If successful, then southern parts of the Chad (including N'Djamena) will be first to benefit from some drier and warmer conditions. However further north, across the Borkou-Ennedi-Tibesti region, any improvement may be slow and relatively short-lived. 

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[Jonathan McCormack]

I have had time to acquire more data was given use of CPU time on the mainframe to run through various global forecasting models combined with our own analysis.

Consequently the updated forecasts is as follows:

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Very warm and humid with thunderstorms early in the week.
Turning cooler and showery from the west for a time before temperatures rise again late in the
week.
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[SARGE!!!!]

Any updates? or is it to early?
SARGE!!!!

[Jonathan McCormack]

Lastest update:
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Forecast for 11/08 – 19/08

Low pressure close to the southeast or south of the Chad, quite showery through out the southern parts of the country  with perhaps locally heavy rain accompanied with thunder. Drier to the north and northwest where high pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and fine conditions.

Through the week a gradual decline to unsettled, wet and possibly windy conditions is likely. Turning wet and windy from the north and west, these unsettled and cool conditions extending across all areas.

Through the latter stages of the period, drier and brighter conditions likely to extend from the south as pressure begins to rise.
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[Jonathan McCormack]

Lastest update...
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Friday 17th looks likely to see a cool showery NW'ly flow across the Chad as the deep low pressure moves well away to the NW with higher pressure to the south west.  A reasonable day for most in the south and east to start -with sunny periods developing after some early mistiness clears but cloud soon bubbling up and some showers developing though staying well scattered in the SE and east. Still a fair amount of cloud around in the west to start with a few showers overnight here. The showers soon bubbling up here too by mid morning and becoming heavy in places with the risk of thunder in the north, west and NW of the Chad.  A blustery NW wind, strong in places in the NW and north. Temperatures near 17-19C in the south so rather a cool day despite the sunshine but generally only 15-16C for most and perhaps a very cool 11-12C in the far north.

Saturday 18th and Sunday 19th looks like high pressure will lie to the south west and a cool NW flow will persist across the Chad.  By Sunday another area of low pressure may move SE across much of the northernmost regions of the Chad, especially affecting the north west but it will probably stay a little more settled in the south east . Most western and central parts will have a fairly chilly night on Friday into Saturday and see some showery weather affect them by day, some of the showers quite heavy and possibly thundery in nature still. Generally drier at least initially across eastern areas, but cloud bubbling up and a few scattered showers probably developing here to by afternoon. A fairly cloudy night on Saturday in the west , though not so chilly, conversely the east may be clearer and somewhat cooler with some mistiness. On Sunday as the low pressure moves SE down across the northern part of the Chad, with its associated fronts, it seems likely there will be quite a lot of showery rain about again for most central, northern and western parts, some of it possibly quite heavy and perhaps thundery. The far southern and eastern parts of the Chad look likely to see the best of the sunshine initially , though bursts of showery rain are also again likely to develop, more especially in the afternoon and be on the heavy side. Temperatures on Saturday rather below near average, though favoured spots in the SE and Eastern regions may become warmer at 20-21C on Saturday and Sunday ; generally nearer a rather cool 15-16C on both days in the north. 

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